By : Hem Raj Jain : Since the last phase of Bush era and onset of Obama era in white House (which coincided with signs of non-success of US in Afghanistan and Iraq and with ongoing global financial / economical crises triggered by sub-prime crises in US) any number of political commentators are appearing in Indian print and electronic media propounding a bizarre “New Triangle of Power” theory which is based on following premises:-
(i)- In future there will be only three powers namely USA, China and India.
(ii)- Within 30 years the GDP of these powers will be in Dollars for USA 29 Trillions, for China 48 Trillions and for India 32 Trillions.
(iii)- China’s non Anglo – Saxon non democratic model will be a good attraction to many countries of the world as it would provide economic prosperity to 1.5 billion people.
(iv)- Europe belongs to past, USA belongs to present and China & India belong to future, That means USA is already a declining power and Europe is a dead power.
(v)- USA will be overwhelmed by non-whites (who presently are 34% but will be 51% in next 30 years) with attended perilous influence on the competitiveness of USA.
(vi)- USA, historically being a highly selfish nation will keep on aligning with different countries out of short sighted selfish goals which will further enhance the decline of USA as a world power.
(vii)- India’s present above 8% GDP growth will continue in the same way during coming 30 years.
(viii)- India should become a permanent junior partner of USA like Britain has done during last 60 years.
Though on the face of it this inference of “New Triangle of Power” theory from above premises sounds plausible but scratch the surface a bit and one finds that these speculative Indians are living in fools paradise as given below:-
(1)- No economical – martial power can be produced and sustained without lead in Science & Technology. The present unprecedented advance in Science & Technology has been brought about mainly by the Christians of west European origin since 16th century onwards. This still remains an enigma whether such “spirit of enquiry of outer world”, these people got from Christianity or was planted in them by some aliens. Remaining mankind even does not know whether it will be able to equal (what to talk of surpass) these Christians in the field of Science & Technology without becoming Christians. Therefore India and China, both non-Christian countries do not have any chance of beating these Christian countries in the field of Science & Technology (read military and economical power).
(2)- Powerful countries have always been feared even respected by mankind throughout its history. But it is for the first time that a powerful country USA is even loved for its free spirit and idealism which is mainly due to its ex President Abraham Lincoln. USA is the only country which used for the first time its armed forces (even engendering civil war and risking even dismemberment of USA) for the furtherance of idealism, a human value (the eradication of slavery). Lincoln changed the state-craft of the mankind for ever and ideological seed never dies, it flourishes again with proper inputs.
(3)- Though Americans themselves have pushed the legacy of Lincoln in the background but those people who think that the use of armed forces of USA for idealism and its first practitioner Lincoln shall be forgotten by Americans for ever, then they are living in their make believe world. The day USA invokes Lincoln and start using its martial and economical power for planting idealism (human rights) all over the world, there will be nothing to stop USA from retaining its premier world power status.
(4)- As far China is concerned it has earned its present power status out of hard labor and discipline. But it is also a fact that after eighties when western world was fighting cold war with USSR, the liberal economical and financial help and assistance by western world (in order to wean China from USSR) is the main reason of China’s present economical clout. Therefore with the demise of cold war and China’s present economical might coming in conflict with economical interest of USA and its allies, how much of its present economical clout China will be able to preserve is best left to future.
(5)- It will also be a folly to underestimate the drawback of lack of democracy in China. Democracy is not merely a western method of State governance. Due to unprecedented advance in Science & Technology during last 5 centuries every human being (including women) has become very powerful. Hence those States, namely democracies, which derive their power from their citizens have, in long term, inherent advantage over non-democratic countries as far as economical – martial power is concerned.
(6)- As far India is concerned now a days any body can see that in India due to present global economical / financial crises FDI / FII has practically dried up and economical progress has come to stand still [notwithstanding deceptive 8% GDP growth (which is making rich the richer while 50% of Indians are below or hovering around poverty line) hence unsustainable especially in a democracy]. In a nutshell India can not achieve economical growth unless it gets huge FDI / FII. And if any body thinks that USA and its allies will allow huge FDI / FII at the cost of the decline of their economical – military power then one can only pity the unfounded optimism of these loud thinkers.
(7)- As far India becoming a permanent junior partner of USA , Indians do not realize that non-martial India is good for nothing for USA (because despite country of 1.2 billion, it does not provide armed forces to USA. On the contrary Pakistan is closer to USA despite India’s whimpering because Pakistan gives its soldiers for the global missions of USA). As far India’s boast that USA & its allies are bound to be lured by India’s ‘fast growing economy’ and huge market, Indians do not understand the simple truth that on the contrary US and its allies know that India’s future economical progress depends vitally on FDI / FII from them.
(8)- Indians are also not factoring-in a most crucial factor which will influence every aspect of future national life of India. Kashmir problem is not merely a Kashmir problem but essentially a Hindu – Muslim problem (not other Muslims like Bangladeshis from east but from west with whom Hindus have a deep rooted persistent animosity of one thousand years from the time of not only 11th century Gazani to 16th century Babur but up to 20th century India’s partition which are perceived by Hindus to be the work of these Muslims from west). Therefore without solving Kashmir problem if Indians think that they can become a world power then Indians are in for a big surprise.
(9)- That does not mean that India is without its potential. India has immense advantage in its working democracy of 1.2 billion in South Asia. This is bound to attract huge FDI / FII sooner than later but at the terms and conditions of the investors which may surprise these speculative Indians who are under the delusion that the time for “New Triangle of Power” has arrived with India as one of the angle.
(10)- Therefore India should wait before it finds place among world powers and should endeavor humbly, persistently and arduously for it. Because there is no short cut to power for any country especially without inculcating “spirit of enquiry of outer world” in its people.
(11)- As far non-white population exceeding white population in USA in next 30 years, what makes Indians think that USA will commit the same mistake as India committed (where it allowed unbridled increase in its population so much so that it added population-wise three America in post independence period). If required then who will stop USA to enact law which will allow not more than 2 or 3 children per family (women) in the interest of demographic stability?
(12)- Moreover the loud thinking of these speculative Indians is based mainly on the assumption that come what may USA will eternally have only present two dominant political parties namely Democrats and Republicans. But if the views expressed by Americans in media and on internet are any indication then now Americans have started feeling that both these political parties are increasingly failing USA (by bidding goodbye to America’s traditional unique strength competitiveness which is evident from various bailouts to inefficient business at the cost of ex-chequere’s money, by not rectifying financial and monetary malaises, by abandoning capitalism by depending merely on trickle down effect of private capitalism and abjuring State capitalism for the solution of serious unemployment problem, by becoming soft State against illegal immigrants etc.). Hence one should not be surprised that if Democrats and Republicans do not mend their ways then in order to keep the legacy of Lincoln alive, the Americans may project a new political party which will lead them in 2012 general elections in the interest of keeping USA in the forefront of implanting idealism (human rights) all over the world.