March 5, 2025: Rates of obesity and overweight are rising at an alarming pace due to what experts describe as a “monumental societal failure” to address the issue. A new study published in The Lancet warns that by 2050, more than half of the global adult population and nearly one-third of children and adolescents will be overweight or obese.
The study estimates that over 3.8 billion adults and 746 million children and adolescents will be affected by excessive weight gain, significantly increasing the risk of serious health problems such as diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers.
Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington called the trend an “unprecedented global epidemic” and a “profound tragedy.” The research, conducted as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators, analyzed data from 204 countries and territories to assess current trends and future projections.
Obesity rates have already more than doubled in the last three decades. As of 2021, more than 2.1 billion adults and 493 million young people aged 5-24 years were classified as overweight or obese. While obesity has multiple contributing factors, the study urges governments to focus on populations most at risk, particularly by improving access to healthier diets.
The findings highlight a disproportionate impact on low- and middle-income countries where health systems are ill-equipped to handle the impending disease burden. The study predicts a staggering 250% increase in overweight and obesity rates in sub-Saharan Africa, with numbers rising to 522 million adults and 200 million children and adolescents, driven in part by population growth.
A separate study, the World Obesity Atlas from the World Obesity Federation, echoes these concerns. It projects that by 2035, 79% of obese and overweight adults and 88% of affected children will be living in low- and middle-income nations, with only 7% of countries having adequate healthcare systems to manage the crisis.
“The most affected regions are developing countries,” said Simon Barquera, President of the World Obesity Federation. “It’s really one of the main public health challenges around the world.”
The Lancet study, funded by the Gates Foundation, acknowledges limitations, such as data gaps and reliance on body mass index (BMI) as a measure of obesity. Additionally, it does not account for the potential impact of emerging obesity drugs, which have seen soaring demand in wealthier nations.
Despite these limitations, experts warn that urgent, coordinated action is required to curb the global obesity epidemic before it overwhelms healthcare systems and exacerbates health inequalities.
